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The challenges facing Sierra Leone at a time of change in the external geopolitical environment
-- John Birchall, A British Professor and a Friend of Sierra Leone

In the thirty years that I have known Sierra Leone I have noted with great sadness the waste of talent and wealth that have characterised the majority of the post independence period. The country now stands at a crucial crossroads of opportunity that will determine both its future as a coherent sovereign state and its image amongst the members of the wider international community. I have therefore chosen to analyse the challenges faced by any incoming government in the context of the external economic, political and social environments within which decisions will be made.

As the last decade of the twentieth century ran its course, so it became less certain that the country of Sierra Leone would remain as a uniform, sovereign state. Fragmentation, ethnic tensions and the distrust amongst many of the political elite had led to the very future of one of Africa’s oldest and most influential states being in doubt. Decades of neglect and corruption had left many demoralised and reluctant to be part of the democratic process. The poorest and most vulnerable members of the population suffered terrible crimes against both their person and the community values that had been part of their lives for generations.

Later in this paper I will look in more detail at the challenges the new leadership will face if they are to engage the electorate in the democratic process, offer transparent government and develop policy options that overcome many of the sub-divisions that exist within the country. However, I would stress that it is not for me to pass judgement on the actions and deliberations of others. I feel that in this paper my role is to set before prospective decision-makers some of the geopolitical changes against which their onerous tasks will be set.

No country exists in a vacuum and we must be aware of significant changes that are taking place many miles from the coastline of West Africa. On continental Europe it is now certain that enlargement of the European Union will take place. This will impose a further constraint on both member state budgets and that of the EU. Difficult choices are already facing the elected leaderships of the individual member states. These mainly centre of the provision of what are deemed to be adequate social protection programmes and the adoption of more open economies. The majority of the EU populations are becoming older and the pressure is increasing for politicians to deliver improved quality of services in the sensitive areas of health and the welfare of the elderly. At the younger end of the age spectrum the demand for more flexible education system will also place a further constraint on budgets. Enlargement into the once Soviet dominated regions of Eastern Europe will be another pressure on resources. We must add to this the continued drive to free market economics. This is felt to encourage productivity, efficiency and therefore both price and non-price competitiveness. However, it can also bring with it a feeling of increased vulnerability amongst considerable numbers of workers. They will therefore need to seek opportunities to safeguard their own financial security via private medical health insurance and pension provision, Such considerations may seem to have little relevance to those engaged in policy making in Sierra Leone but their impact on both micro and macro decision-making will form part of any strategy matrix developed post the coming elections.

These twin developments will increase pressure on both private personal disposable income and the spending programmes of government. The combination of these two observations will be to make development funding to countries such as Sierra Leone more difficult to access. It will also encourage officials, both elected and non-elected to look for increased evidence of self-help and accountability being displayed by those asking for assistance.

Within individual economies on mainland Europe the French economy is known to require structural reform and when a new President has been elected he will face pressures to radically alter social expenditure programmes. The direct consequences of these changes will be to make the individual more responsible for their own welfare provision. In Germany the incoming Chancellor (post elections in the autumn) will also face growing pressure to cut social protection expenditure. Similar trends are apparent in both Italy and Spain, where centre right administrations are seeking ways of making their economies more flexible and with a reduced role for central provision of social protection programmes. Knowing the tendency for politicians to seek cuts in areas other than those that directly effect the electorate aid maybe a major sufferer in the re-allocation of real sums of available money.

Within the EU the political model now prevalent seems to focus more on domestic stability and less on ideology. It is noticeable that in the majority of member states a change in government does not result in a significant change of policy content or application. The Stability Pact that supports the Euro has already caused embarrassment to Germany and the Irish Republic is suffering from its inability to increase short-term interest rates to control inflationary pressures. Membership of the ‘Eurozone’ imposes a financial discipline that was not always apparent in the developed economies of the 1970’s and 1980’s.

In the US, which is the major driving force for global economic re-newel the expansion in their ‘war against terrorism’ means that funds available for development spending may be subjected to real value reductions. It is probable that regimes seeking development funding will have to prove beyond all reasonable doubt that they are not harbouring or giving financial assistance to those categorised as ‘enemies of the state’. The White House has already begun the process of seeking re-election for President George W Bush with the announcement that tariffs are to be imposed on imports of steel. This is an example of ‘pork barrel’ politics and will not be the last in the run up to the 2004-election. The American public seems to be more introspective and this may also make it difficult to obtain development funding. Whatever ‘sweeteners’ are offered for public consumption the criteria for aid funding is altering. This puts yet more pressure on the domestic economy of Sierra Leone to show the characteristics that attract private international capital flows.

The major economies of the Far East are also suffering from structural problems. Confidence is re-appearing in Japan but very slowly and with signs that they too will seek to stabilise their own economic environment before allowing funds to be released to help developing nations. It must also be remembered that within the ASEAN membership exists developing economies and with the integrated nature of regional trade its is probable that the main emphasis of funding will be localised to support markets that underpin domestic employment.

Looking at the recent history of Sierra Leone one notes that it is set against a background of a reduction in the will of the richer nations to sacrifice part of their wealth in order that it be transferred to the poorer countries. Debt relief is spasmodic and often refers to sums that would never have been repaid. Even those politicians who speak of ‘altering the world order’ do so with little real evidence that they will set aside real resources to finance their ambitions. If there was a golden age within the international community and its approach to development I feel that it has now gone. Development funds at both a bilateral and multilateral level will be more difficult to acquire. Financial reality, balanced budgets and demographic changes are now the driving forces of national government policy and the international institutions must now show caution when granting funds for projects. As already noted the populations of the US and Europe are ageing and will may vote for those promising a domestic led agenda.

It is against this background that Sierra Leone must identify its priorities. For me these are:

• utilising all resources at its disposal both physical and human
• establishing accountable and transparent systems of government
• engaging all sectors of society in the democratic process

The natural resources are well known and the nation is fortunate to have such a range of wealth generating assets. However, little of the value added by these resources has stayed within the political boundaries of the country. Future negotiations will have to produce a larger and more consistent income stream than that represented by diamonds. It must be hoped that infrastructure developments are brought on line at a pace to complement resource extraction. Indeed, in some economies the permission to exploit resources has been granted with a guarantee being made to build roads and other forms of communication. The physical infrastructure has been severely damaged by war and neglect and its reconstruction must be a priority for the next government.

The stock of human capital, especially the percentage represented by the female population has loon been under utilised. In Nigeria they promised universal primary education as far back as 1979 and it is still not a reality. So, the recent experiences of Sierra Leone make such an ambition one with a long-term perspective. Despite the enormity of the problems associated with human resource development it must be remembered that empirical studies mainly conclude that the opportunity cost of education focused investment is positive. Research confirms that as the skill base expands so do the abilities of individuals to add value and competitive advantage in certain indigenous industries. The integrated nature of human capital investment means that planning will need to navigate past an old ‘chicken and egg’ problem of what comes first the teacher or the pupil! Self-sufficiency in base agricultural products was once a fact of national economic life. The agrarian sector may be one best served by de-regulation, privatisation and less government intervention. Such changes normally meet with institutional reluctance to change and those in power will need to bring the industry with them as they incorporate change within this important sector of the economy. One other area ripe for development is that of maritime resources. The recent formation of a national maritime authority will hopefully allow for more of the revenues generated by fishing to stay within the domestic economy.

Set against recent history this seems to be a difficult target to achieve. People have lost respect and trust in their elected leaders. The democratic system survives because people trust it and see that it serves them well. Systems of patronage be they based in the conventional corridors of power or in traditional leadership environments will have to addressed and made more open and accountable. Good governance will need to be central to whoever enters the Presidential Lodge. All of us can articulate the probable reaction of sections of the population if this essential target is seen to have not been addressed. If those seeking power want to engage the electorate they must afford access to the decision-making process for all wanting to participate. This will probably be based on a pluralist system as the one party state model has been tarnished in the minds of the majority of the electorate. Yet another drain on the limited funds of the economy will be the need to offer civil and public servants adequate salary levels. For too long low and irregularly paid salaries in the public sector has been a primary cause of corruption and inefficiency.

Many of the voters have little knowledge of the electoral system under which they are governed and public training programmes in the fundamentals of the exercising power are a long awaited part of functions of the public information service.

In a number of countries within the sub-region radio has been used to educate and engage as many of the electorate as can be reached effectively.

For ordinary people to accept an elected government as a means of delivering essential services it has to be seen as being in touch with their aspirations. One can only assume that most civilians want to live out their lives in peace and with an opportunity to leave something permanent for those who follow them. In a country with sub-divisions based on ethnic loyalties the need for a sense of national identity is another challenge facing those who win power in May.

Previous administrations often allocated considerable sums of money on large-scale projects and neglected the micro economy. Obviously, there is a need for large infrastructure and utilities projects but the in-coming administration cannot ignore the necessities of individuals in their everyday lives. They will need to address small or micro loans of just a few US dollars, which can release individual potential. Grants for local road maintenance, local transport subsidies and funding for self-help programmes have been seen to return high levels of community benefit elsewhere in West Africa. It is perhaps the right time to encourage people to determine part of what the State delivers. For too long central government (and this is not reserved for Sierra Leone) has thought that is knows best how to allocate resources and deliver essential services. As the road up country from Freetown clearly illustrates the people of this country can adapt and survive under some very difficult circumstances.

I will end now as I have taken enough of your time with this wide-ranging view from a far. Let’s use technology to allow us to share our views.. My email address is john_birchall@bsc.biblio.net. I look forward to being part of the evolving process of peace and reconciliation in the beautiful country of Sierra Leone

John Birchall
16^th March 2002.

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